REPORT: Conflict Prevention in the Taiwan Strait: Restraint, Discipline and Dialogue

By Susan A. Thornton and Emily Sparkman
July 2025

In June 2025, the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) convened its annual Cross-Taiwan Strait Track II Dialogue in New York City, bringing together a select group of authoritative participants from all sides. This closed-door discussion focused on the increasingly tense dynamics shaping cross-Strait relations, with particular attention to the growing drivers of the security dilemma, diverging threat perceptions, and the erosion of mutual trust. Participants explored both short- and medium-term outlooks for peace and stability, assessed the effectiveness of deterrence strategies, and offered recommendations to reduce the risk of conflict in the absence of formal communication channels between Beijing and Taipei, as well as truncated communication between Beijing and Washington.

Despite the relative stability in the Asia-Pacific region, the cross-Strait environment is increasingly at risk of crisis-level conflict. While deterrence has held, it is under growing strain from escalating military posturing, political rigidity, and lack of restraint on all sides. Participants agreed that the absence of communication increases the risk of near-term miscalculation or accidental escalation. Dialogue participants, therefore, identified potential paths for de-escalation, mutually improved signaling, and confidence-building measures aimed at preserving the status quo and preventing conflict.

Read and download the full report below.