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Beyond Great Power Competition: Middle Power Responses to Strategic Uncertainty in Northeast Asia

By Susan Thornton, Emily Sparkman, and Ashley QuinonezJune 2026 In May 2026, the National Committee on American Foreign Policy’s Forum on Asia-Pacific Security convened scholars and practitioners from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the United States for a closed-door Track II dialogue. Participants examined how to navigate an intensifying U.S.-China competition and its effects on regional allies and partners; how to manage growing economic vulnerabilities amid the politicization of trade and supply chains; and how to preserve dialogue amid deepening mistrust. In…

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REPORT: The U.S.-China Relationship Heads Toward Stabilization

By Susan Thornton and Emily SparkmanJune 2026 In May 2026, NCAFP convened American and Chinese experts for its annual U.S.-China Track II to assess the state of bilateral relations just ahead of the delayed Trump-Xi summit in Beijing and to identify opportunities to reduce the risks of long-term strategic competition. Although participants differed on the causes of current tensions and the appropriate path forward, stabilization emerged as the most realistic and achievable near-term objective for the relationship. Both sides recognized that competition would persist and agreed that an unmanaged rivalry carries far too…

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REPORT: U.S.-China Next Generation Working Group: Reflections Ahead of the Upcoming 2026 Leader Summit

Multiple Authors May 2026 The NCAFP, in collaboration with Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy’s U.S.-China Young Leaders Working Group, brings together scholars from the United States and China to support ongoing dialogue at a time of heightened tension and limited exchange between both sides. Building on NCAFP’s long-standing Track II engagement, the program creates space for sustained exchange and relationship-building among the next generation of experts shaping the future of U.S.-China ties. The paired essays featured here reflect these exchanges, presenting U.S. and Chinese perspectives on the…

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2026 report cover: 'Northern Ireland Emerging Leaders' in large white text on a blue background with a globe illustration on the right.

REPORT: Northern Ireland Emerging Leaders

Northern Ireland Emerging Leaders 2026 Report May 6, 2026 The National Committee on American Foreign Policy is pleased to announce the release of the Northern Ireland Emerging Leaders 2026 Report. Over the past several months, NCAFP convened the third cohort of Northern Ireland Emerging Leaders, a diverse group of scholars and policy practitioners. Through one-on-one mentorship, a series of virtual and in-person discussions, training workshops, delegation visits, and high-level meetings in Belfast, Dublin, and the United States, participants examined some of the region’s most pressing challenges and opportunities. These engagements informed the report, which addresses topics including USA 250, sustainable…

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REPORT: Anchoring the Asia-Pacific: The U.S.-Japan Alliance in an Era of Strategic Uncertainty

By Emily Sparkman April 2026 In February 2026, the NCAFP convened experts for a closed-door hybrid discussion to discuss the future of the U.S.-Japan bilateral relations, the growing importance of economic security within the alliance, the role of domestic politics, Japan’s evolving defense posture and strategic autonomy, and the resilience of international institutions during a period of global uncertainty. Participants emphasized the alliance's operational strength, particularly in the military domain, and identified opportunities for the U.S. and Japan to strengthen their partnership and adapt to emerging challenges. Yet, political uncertainty surrounding the direction…

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REPORT: Stability at an Inflection Point: U.S. Strategy in a Changing Northeast Asia

By Susan A. Thornton, Emily Sparkman, and Nia Williams January 2026 A delegation from the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) visited Shanghai, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul, and Tokyo in December 2025 to discuss regional security issues and U.S. foreign policy in Northeast Asia. Last year proved impactful for U.S. relations with East Asia, as shifting regional dynamics heightened strategic competition with China, and renewed diplomatic engagement amid leadership transitions in Japan and the Republic of Korea took shape. Interlocutors in Shanghai, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul, and Tokyo understand that major changes in U.S….

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REPORT: Conflict Prevention in the Taiwan Strait: Restraint, Discipline and Dialogue

By Susan A. Thornton and Emily SparkmanJuly 2025 In June 2025, the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) convened its annual Cross-Taiwan Strait Track II Dialogue in New York City, bringing together a select group of authoritative participants from all sides. This closed-door discussion focused on the increasingly tense dynamics shaping cross-Strait relations, with particular attention to the growing drivers of the security dilemma, diverging threat perceptions, and the erosion of mutual trust. Participants explored both short- and medium-term outlooks for peace and stability, assessed the effectiveness of deterrence strategies, and offered…

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REPORT: Unlocking Cooperation: A Path to Regional Stability in Asia

By Susan A. Thornton and Emily SparkmanJuly 2025 The National Committee on American Foreign Policy’s Forum on Asia Pacific Security recently convened experts from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the U.S. against a complex geopolitical backdrop for a closed-door trilateral (U.S., Japan, ROK) and four-party Track II conference. In keeping with our focus on conflict prevention, discussions focused on fostering regional security cooperation and negotiations to defuse tensions and build confidence among regional players. Despite substantial challenges to regional stability and cooperation, participants recognized the…

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REPORT: U.S.-China in 2025: Cutting Through Uncertainty

Hogogo/Getty Images By Susan A. ThorntonJune 2025 In early May, the NCAFP convened policy experts and former officials from the U.S. and China in New York City for its annual Northeast Asia Security Track II Conference. Participants discussed the strategic direction of the U.S.-China relationship as well as actions to build more constructive relations, mitigate the current zero-sum competition, and avert deepening adversity to reduce the likelihood of crisis. The NCAFP recommends the following: The U.S. should clearly articulate its China policy at the…

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