REPORT: U.S.-Japan Relations in Trump 2.0: Gilt or Golden?
Reports
U.S.-Japan Relations in Trump 2.0: Gilt or Golden?
By Susan A. Thornton
May 2025
During a recent U.S.-Japan bilateral Track II conference in New York, the NCAFP invited experts, scholars, and practitioners from the U.S. and Japan to discuss and analyze the challenges and opportunities presented by major changes in U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration. The NCAFP recommends the following:
- Rhetoric about a “New Golden Age” in U.S.-Japan relations exaggerates expectations and could be counterproductive if overplayed. There is a need to demonstrate the value proposition of the alliance in both countries. In this regard, the two sides should take advantage of the potential for a Nippon-U.S. Steel deal, shipbuilding assistance, and other high-profile bilateral endeavors.
- The U.S. and Japan should maintain an increased cooperation tempo with regional partners, including the Philippines, South Korea, and the Quad. The two sides should develop consensus contingency plans for holding to a steady state in this cooperation amid domestic political changes. The U.S. should increase engagement with Southeast Asia, which has fallen off since the Obama administration.
- The U.S. should not try to force Japanese “decoupling” from China; it should renew Trump 1.0 support for Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy. Recall that U.S. strategic assessments about devoting more resources to the Pacific theater stem from the economic importance of Asia-Indo-Pacific countries in the 21st century and the importance of economic dynamism to geopolitics and the global order.
- The two governments should seek to preemptively shape Japanese elite conversations about extended deterrence and nuclear options by convening Track 1.5 discussions, noting Japan’s responsibility for upholding the international order and the importance of maintaining the NPT.
- Increase student and other people-to-people exchanges, with a special focus on Okinawa.