REPORT: Unlocking Cooperation: A Path to Regional Stability in Asia

By Susan A. Thornton and Emily Sparkman
July 2025

The National Committee on American Foreign Policy’s Forum on Asia Pacific Security recently convened experts from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the U.S. against a complex geopolitical backdrop for a closed-door trilateral (U.S., Japan, ROK) and four-party Track II conference. In keeping with our focus on conflict prevention, discussions focused on fostering regional security cooperation and negotiations to defuse tensions and build confidence among regional players. Despite substantial challenges to regional stability and cooperation, participants recognized the need for their respective governments to build on existing momentum and institutional architecture.

• Resumption of dialogue with the DPRK is unlikely until a peace settlement is reached over the Russia-Ukraine war. A sufficient cessation of hostility between these warring states would create room to focus attention on issues on the Korean Peninsula.
  • Although Russia may not require arms support from the DPRK after the Ukraine conflict ends, the strategic partnership will remain intact.
• Traditional regional security forums have been undermined by geopolitical competition and are likely to further recede in the Trump administration. Communication channels should be maintained or increased, even if at a low level or through Track II, as a means of mitigating misperceptions.
• “Strategic ambiguity” has preserved the cross-Strait status quo, but must be consistent in its articulation and intent, which should be to act as a deterrent to changes in the status quo by either side of the Strait. 
  • Allies seek consistency in U.S. policy articulation and consultation regarding any changes. Allied statements, especially from Japan and South Korea, will be crucial in stabilizing the messaging to China in a scenario where U.S. leadership is volatile.
• Participants unanimously acknowledged the need for a robust U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral cooperation system. Such a system is strategic and should be insulated from bilateral irritants that will inevitably crop up.

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