REPORT: U.S.-China in 2025: Cutting Through Uncertainty

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By Susan A. Thornton
June 2025

In early May, the NCAFP convened policy experts and former officials from the U.S. and China in New York City for its annual Northeast Asia Security Track II Conference. Participants discussed the strategic direction of the U.S.-China relationship as well as actions to build more constructive relations, mitigate the current zero-sum competition, and avert deepening adversity to reduce the likelihood of crisis. The NCAFP recommends the following:

• The U.S. should clearly articulate its China policy at the highest levels to reduce misperceptions and mistrust, which are exacerbated by inconsistent messaging. A greater clarity on strategic goals, intentions, and red lines is essential to prevent conflict. To this end, Washington and Beijing should prioritize careful management of the Cross-Strait situation, define the contours of economic competition, and sustain dialogue on military and security restraints.
• Sustained communication is the guardrail of U.S.-China relations. Trump has the opportunity to use his political strength to initiate bold outreach to Chinese officials, reinforcing that Washington officials must be confident in engaging directly when needed, and encouraging Beijing to do the same. Stronger and more frequent established lines of communication will enhance the currently stagnant and difficult negotiations between U.S. and PRC officials.

Read and download the full report below.